The Oscars (part one)

Okay, I'm outing myself as the King of all Nerds here, but ... I love the Oscars. Yes, even the telecast. I'll watch the whole damn thing (disclaimer: I also love watching the Brownlow Medal and the Eurovision Song Contest ... so clearly there's something not-quite-right with my head). This year we've been luckier than usual here in Australia, in that basically all of the major contenders have actually had their release before the gongs get handed out (this doesn't happen often) and, being the movie-geek that I am, I've seen ... well ... all of them.

Here's my rundown of the major categories.

BEST PICTURE: I take it as a given that anything nominated for Best Picture that ain't also nominated for Best Director is merely making up the numbers (though there are some very good films that fall into that category). Of what's left, Black Swan is too bizarre, The Fighter too ordinary and True Grit too not-No-Country-For-Old-Men, meaning (as everybody surely knows by now) that it's The King's Speech and The Social Network that are slugging this one out. I'm hoping The Social Network can get up - for the hopelessly quaint reason that I believe it's the better film - but The King's Speech is infinitely more heart-warming, and the academy does tend to like treacle.

BEST ACTOR: Well, Colin Firth's a lock for this one, so it doesn't matter what anyone says or does. He actually should have won last year, for making the horrifyingly tedious A Single Man sit-through-able. If Jesse Eisenberg gets a nomination next year, put your house on him. The Oscars love playing catch-up for some reason.

BEST ACTRESS: The only way Natalie Portman won't win is if they give it to Annette Bening as a de facto lifetime achievement award. Which won't happen. Michelle Williams deserves it for Blue Valentine, (again, get on her next time she's nominated!) but deserve ain't got nothing to do with it. As we all know.

BEST DIRECTOR: Even if The King's Speech wins Best Picture, I still think they'll give this one to David Fincher for The Social Network. Put bluntly: Fincher won't give them many opportunities to award him, his work is generally too edgy and too damn violent. So they'll take their chance while they can. (And the direction was very nearly the worst thing about The King's Speech anyway, so if Tom Hooper wins for it, I'll be ropable.) Aronofsky deserves to be in the conversation for Black Swan but, again, it's just too weird. Make a film that doesn't fit into any single easily-defined genre and boom, you've entered awards-season limbo.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: While I'd love John Hawkes (you know him from Deadwood) to win for A Winter's Bone, it won't happen. Christian Bale will win for his totally over-the-top performance in The Fighter, unless our Geoffrey, the only other realistic contender, can pinch it from him at the last second.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Hailee Steinfeld, from True Grit, should have been nominated for Best Actress. If you watch the film, it's obvious to anyone with a brain that hers is the lead role in the damn film. Because she's ended up here, she should win ... but (with a few notable exceptions) the Oscars tend not to go to first-timers. They prefer people that have paid their dues. Sorry parochialists, Jackie Weaver is no chance: Animal Kingdom is just too niche. The other three though, are all a chance. I won't be surprised if any of Helena Bonham Carter (for The King's Speech), Amy Adams or Melissa Leo (both for The Fighter) get up. If forced to make a prediction, I'll fall back on my quaint who-actually-deserves-it? system, and say that maybe young Hailee will pull it out after all.

In the other categories: Aaron Sorkin will win Best Adapted Screenplay for The Social Network and David Seidler will win Original Screenplay for The King's Speech ... unless Christopher Nolan gets a sorry-you-weren't-up-for-Director pity-gong for Inception, though if I was him, I wouldn't be holding my breath. Inception will, however, win Visual Effects (duh!) and is a good chance for Cinematography as well, though Roger Deakins will probably claim that one for True Grit, because when it comes to cinematography, the academy seems to love a nice landscape.

The travesties? The fact that Inception isn't even nominated for editing is a fucking joke (it intercuts between four levels of reality ... none of which are actually reality), and Rabbit Hole should have earned nominations for, at the very least, Aaron Eckhart's performance and its sublime screenplay.

Oh well, come back in a few hours to see how wrong I am about all of this. In the meantime, I'll be pulling out my tuxedo and sashaying to the couch. Is it decadent to eat popcorn by yourself, at midday?

Cheers, JC.

currently reading: Anna Karenina by Leo Tolstoy

books to go: 111