The 2012 Oscars (part one)

So, I made sure I had today off work months ago, and not because I'm a political junkie who had miraculously divined that the Labor Party would meltdown this morning. Nope, I took today off because I am an Oscars Nerd. For some reason nothing gets me tingling quite like a boring awards ceremony does --- if there's ever a year that a Melbourne player might actually win it, I'll probably even blog about the Brownlow. And let's face it: the Oscars shit all over Brownlow night, mainly because movie stars are way prettier than footy players.

Anyway, on to my predictions:

BEST PICTURE: Unfortunately, The Artist has this one all wrapped up. It would be a major shock if anything else wins, which sucks, because The Artist just wasn't that good. It took a cute idea for a sketch and made a whimsical, fluffy little film out of it. If people still give two shits about this feather-light movie in five years, I'll eat my horse. Scanning the other nominees, though, makes for depressing reading: Oscar voters have fucked up big time this year. While I know that The Descendants, Hugo and Midnight in Paris all have their champions, they're all deeply flawed (and in Paris' case, deeply unambitious) movies, which wouldn't have a prayer in a stronger year. I guess karma's coming round for the pretty kick-arse list they served up last year, but still. I'll be rooting for The Tree of Life here, and for best director (even though it doesn't have a chance in hell at either of them) because it's the only nominated film that's really aiming for greatness. Everything else is safe, and ultimately mediocre.

And seriously, War Horse? What. The. Fuck.

BEST DIRECTOR: The French dude will win, which will be nice because we'll all learn how to pronounce his name. "Hazanivicius." "Umm ... gesundheit?" It'd be nice if Terence Malick got the equivalent of a lifetime achievement award in this category, but he's probably the biggest outsider. And sure, Woody Allen, Martin Scorsese and Alexander Payne deserve accolades ... just not for these movies.

BEST ACTOR: And the other French dude will win this one, just to shove it up me for not liking that fucking movie (Question: doesn't America hate France? Anybody else remember Freedom Fries? What happened to all that?). I'd love love love for Gary Oldman to win for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, for the foolish reason that I thought his performance was flat out amazing. Unfortunately it was also mostly internalised, so he's going to lose to an over-the-top pratfalling buffoon. Okay, that's a bit harsh: Jean Dujardin was very good at what he was asked to do. It's just, what he was asked to do wasn't really all that special. Oldman's task was infinitely harder, and he rose to it in spectacular fashion. Pitt and Clooney, meanwhile, seemed to get their nominations more based on who they are than on what they did. They were fine in Moneyball and The Descendants respectively, but I don't know if they were much better than fine.

The biggest nominations shock across all the categories was easily Demian Bichir getting a Best Actor nod for A Better Life. Until the nominees were announced I'd never even heard of that movie, and I'm all over this shit like that gross rash on my back. It hasn't been released here in Australia yet, so I can't bitch about it yet. But when something scores a nomination coming from this far back, it usually means that it's actually pretty darn good (see also: A Separation's nomination for original screenplay) so I'll make sure to check it out when it does arrive down under.

BEST ACTRESS: Aah, a category that isn't completely cut and dried. God, what a relief. While for a big chunk of this awards season has seemed like a coronation march for Meryl Streep's take on Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady, there's been some recent whispering that she's losing ground. Maybe Hollywood on the whole just wants to keep her remarkable 'getting nominated then losing' streak going (17 nominations, 2 wins), because she's so good at making that gracious loser face. If they do deny Streep, they'll give it either to Michelle Williams for her Marilyn Monroe in My Week With Marilyn, or Viola Davis for giving a bit of soul to The Help. Any of those three actresses would make worthy winners (they were all by far the best thing about their respective films), but if forced to choose I'd probably go with Williams (and not just because of my prediction this time last year). As much as I admire Williams' work, Marilyn Monroe was one of the greatest comic actresses there's ever been, and I didn't think she'd be able to nail the magical 'on-camera' Marilyn. I was happy to be proven wrong.

Elsewhere, Christopher Plummer and Octavia Spencer seem to be locks for the Supporting Actor/tress awards, and the screenplay statuettes could go anywhere (my hopes: Original to A Separation, Adapted to Tinker Tailor. My predictions: Original to Midnight in Paris, Adapted to The Descendants). Hugo has so many nominations that it's got to win something, but it'll probably be limited to more tech-ish stuff, with it and Tree of Life duking it out for the cinematography award.

The main controversies this year are: no Michael Fassbender nomination for Shame? For shame. And the year the Muppets are nominated for best song, they decide they won't have performances of the songs in the ceremony. Let me repeat that: they could have had the Muppets singing at the Oscars, and they decided not to. I don't know who's making these decisions, but they need to be shot and killed. And then set on fire, just for good measure.

Anyway, I'll be back in a few hours to dissect how it all played out. 'Til then, sit back, have some Freedom Fries, and enjoy watching a whole bunch of wealthy, beautiful people sucking each other's dicks. I know I will.

Cheers, JC.


currently reading: The Untouchable by John Banville
books to go: 91